Stats review: Smart shots shape undefeated starts
Only three teams remain unbeaten through 4 rounds of the BKT EuroCup. Napoli Basketball notched perhaps the most significant win of the week, knocking off Tofas Bursa in overtime to protect its home floor and move one game clear of its fellow contenders in Group C. With 10 players scoring in double figures, the game was nonetheless a clear contrast of styles as Tofas scored 26 points in transition and got 38 from its ball handlers in pick-and-roll and isolation situations, while Napoli generated 42 points off cuts and spot-up opportunities.
That continues a trend that has led Napoli to a fast start in its first EuroCup season in more than two decades, as it has led all teams in Synergy Shot Quality, a metric that calculates the expected value of any given shot attempt based on a data-driven model that considers the advanced tracking data Synergy has collected on every field-goal attempt in EuroCup games over the last decade.
What shot quality means varies from team to team and often from lineup to lineup. In the win, Napoli reached an SSQ of 1.33 points per shot with John Petrucelli and Zac Seljaas on the floor, scoring 49 points on 34 attempts, with almost half of its possessions coming from spot-ups or cuts. That duo contributes to the exceptional ball movement that has Napoli among the four teams with over 70% of its field goals coming on assisted shots alongside this season’s most efficient offensive unit, La Laguna Tenerife, and the competition’s two other undefeated teams, Aris Thessaloniki and Hapoel Midtown Jerusalem.
Among the other standouts in SSQ this season, Roma Basketball has done its best work in ball screens, with its ball handlers generating almost twice as many shots for others as they have scored themselves, doing a particularly good job of feeding their screeners, even if the results of those shots have been a mixed bag early in the season.
There’s more to shot quality than just ball movement and three-point rate. Tofas Bursa has gotten out in the open floor more than any other team in the EuroCup this season, and that, along with the patience to avoid forcing contested spot-up jumpers, factors heavily into its placement here. Even as Zach Nutall, Bryce Jones and Shavar Reynolds are aggressive off the dribble, the pace they help set elevates the offense.
Like Roma, BOSNA BH Telecom Sarajevo’s placement here revolves around what it gets in ball screens. However, that has as much to do with the shots the team doesn’t take as the ones it attempts; Bosna has launched the fewest pull-up jumpers in the EuroCup by a wide margin. The activity level of Reggie Perry around the rim helps on that front, but the team’s guards are not shy about getting downhill in the half court either.
While ball movement and shot selection have been notable strengths of this season’s remaining undefeated teams, it will be interesting to see how the teams whose offensive processes have been sound fare as the season wears on.